The supermarket in 2086: From a place of provision to a social gathering space

Mr. Planer, how do you study the future of retail?

Boris Planer: I’ll start with how not to study the future: by projecting today’s assumptions into the future. And trying to predict it based on today’s technologies does not provide a solid working foundation either, because at the current rate of innovation, the technologies that will shape the supermarket 60 years from now will only be invented in 55 years. Today, a phone booth feels like a relic from the age of dinosaurs. Will we feel the same way about the smartphone in 10 years?

What can be predicted, however, is what drives people and what decisions they will make to satisfy fundamental needs. Which values will matter in an aging society where loneliness is looming and living standards are declining? What will people long for in a world that is changing ever more rapidly and where uncertainty is increasing? These questions can be answered.

Which basic needs will shape retail 60 years from now?

Planer: People will be looking for security and guidance, and they will long for belonging and human connection. They will also likely have to make do with less prosperity and think carefully about what they spend their money on and where they spend it. Instead of an expensive vacation, the focus may shift more toward good, inspiring products that improve quality of life at home. Some needs remain constant: a good life includes social ties, health, and access to life’s necessities in sufficient quality at an affordable price.

How will this need for social interaction play out? Is the future of brick-and-mortar retail not in unmanned smart stores?

Planer: Retail will not only be a supply network but also an important part of the social infrastructure. What form that takes will depend on how retailers choose to meet these needs. But I do not believe the idea of a fully automated retail model without human staff on the sales floor – one focused primarily on optimizing transaction prices and speed – is realistic as a dominant market concept. People will increasingly seek out small positive moments of contact in everyday life. Many enjoy the brief exchange at the counter or the chance encounter with neighbors. The supermarket will become a third place.

So if the store becomes a place for social interaction, will mixed-use spaces become more common?

Planer: Absolutely, and we can already see that in current shopping center developments, for example T1 in Tallinn or the BROEKLIN, which is set to launch in Brussels in 2028. These projects are creating places for connection and inspiration. It is no longer just about offering sneakers in different colors, but about cultural spaces, learning, meeting in clubs and groups, and shared experiences. We have also been seeing this trend toward mixed-use space in its early stages in supermarkets for at least 10 years now – there is hardly a newly opened full-line grocery store without a café corner.

You mentioned demographics, because we are living in an aging society. What will that mean for retail?

Planer: In our part of the world, there will be many more older people with less money at their disposal. Fair value for money will be important to them.

At the same time, cost pressure is increasing – we are already seeing those debates. Older people will feel on the defensive, exposed to the accusation that they are no longer contributing productively to society. That is why these generations will also look, in their everyday transactions, for companies where they feel valued as human beings. Retailers could also offer older people opportunities for employment under fair conditions.

The aging of society will also drive accessibility in stores. In addition, there will be more health-related services, for example small stations in supermarkets where people can have their blood pressure or blood sugar checked – services that some drugstore chains are already offering.

You also brought up the rapid change and the growing sense of uncertainty. How might that be reflected in retail?

Planer: I believe the future world will be less globally interconnected. That will be driven by geopolitical bloc formation, with fragile global supply chains, differing standards, and more limited global mobility for both people and goods.

One response to global uncertainty is to return to one’s roots and consciously support regional agriculture and local manufacturers. The industry will try to brace itself against shocks of change: greater regional sourcing and more resilient supply chains are meant to ensure efficient operations and cushion risks. That also enables retailers to respond more quickly to trends.

Climate change is one of the megatrends of the coming decades. Will retail become more sustainable?

Planer: Yes, I believe that 60 years from now awareness of sustainability will have reached a completely different level, because the condition of the planet will have deteriorated further and the urgency will be more tangible than it is today.

In my view, retail is already a few years ahead of many consumers when it comes to sustainability requirements. Customers and producers are being brought along gently on that journey. Competition for shelf space will intensify, and retailers will want to differentiate themselves. We have already seen that with animal welfare labeling for meat, where the pressure came from retailers. Manufacturers that do not operate in environmentally responsible ways could be dropped from the assortment.

Retail in general will also become more energy- and resource-efficient, simply because of operating costs. The current Iran crisis, not least, underscores that urgency. When a supermarket runs up an annual electricity bill of half a million euros, you start looking for efficiencies wherever you can. Buildings and supply chains will operate like small circular ecosystems.

Will sustainability also affect business models?

Planer: That is to be expected, for practical reasons as well. As the sharing economy slogan goes, “If someone wants to hang a picture, they don’t need a drill – they need a hole in the wall.” The desire for sustainability – as well as the desire to save money – will make rental and subscription models, secondhand concepts, and repair services more attractive. Electronics retailers will be expected not only to sell new smartphones but also to repair used ones. And fashion retailers would be well advised to offer repairs for an old track jacket, regardless of where it was originally purchased.

What technological development do you expect by the year 2086?

Planer: I think retail is currently focusing on issues that are relatively easy to handle: data and technology. But the real challenge is to keep asking, “What do customers actually need?” and “How can I use technology to meet my customers’ needs better?” I think that mindset still needs to be cultivated more strongly. Technology itself is not a strategy; it should support the brand’s positioning. And that positioning will always have something to do with people. That is why retailers need to get the balance between people and technology right.